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The Reference Shelf: U.S. National Debate Topic 2022-2023: Emerging Technologies & International Security

What Is Next on the Technological Horizon for America?

Cyberwarfare, artificial intelligence (AI), and biotechnology are fields that are already in the midst of widespread development, and some critics believe that the United States and the international community are potentially already behind the curve in terms of developing policies and safeguards against the misuse and abuse of these technologies. But what about the future? When looking at domestic and international policy, it is important not only to look at the kinds of technology that are already making an impact, but also to plan for the next wave of technology and to begin preparing society for whatever future changes technological innovation might bring.

New Era of Tech, New Era of Equality?

In certain cases, the arrival of new technology can be disruptive to life or the economy within a society. Some theorists, like economist Klaus Schwab, view the history of technological advancement as “a series of industrial revolutions” in which dominant new technologies greatly transformed life and economic realities. The first, and most familiar, of these revolutions involved the introduction of coal in 1765, which led to a broad shift from agrarian to industrial life across the world. Coal technology led to the development of the first steam engines and metal forging technologies and saw the beginning of automation, with the introduction of the spinning machine and coal-powered manufacturing tools that greatly changed not only the nature of work, but the distribution of profit among workers and corporations.

The second industrial revolution stemmed from the introduction of natural gas in 1870s. From here came the combustion engine, household electricity, and household gas and oil, which further drew the ongoing shift from agricultural labor to manufacturing and saw the rapid expansion of America’s cities and urban environments. Access to electricity and power fueled some of the most transformative communications technologies as well, such as the telegraph and later the telephone, and also helped humanity to conquer the distance barriers through the innovation of the airplane, the automobile, and mass international transit. In the late twentieth century, the discovery of nuclear energy signaled the beginning of the Atomic Age, with radical implications for both human life and for the realities of modern warfare and international relations. This modern era, sometimes called the “third industrial revolution,” also saw the equally transformative invention of consumer electronics, which defined the late twentieth century and pointed the way toward the Digital Age of the modern world.

Schwab and others have argued that the world is now in the grips of the fourth industrial revolution, a period that has been defined by digital technology, the internet, and the search for renewable energy. Schwab also adds the development of robotics and AI to the premier tech that will shape the development of the world in years to come.1 The question is, how will this industrial revolution change human life over the longer term?

Historians studying these major disruptive periods in human history have found that the marginalized members of societies tend to suffer more acutely from the disruptive aspects of technological innovation. The first industrial revolution led to reduced opportunities for agricultural laborers for instance, who lacked the skills to take advantage of new, more lucrative opportunities in manufacturing and design. As America and other nations navigate this most recent revolution in life and work, therefore, it is interesting to look at whether current changes in work life can be made to reduce income and wealth inequality rather than exacerbating these long-term struggles in America and around the world.

Women have benefitted less, traditionally, from new emerging technology because women in many nations are prohibited or discouraged from entering technical or technological fields. In part, this is because of lingering gender prejudices holding that women should focus on homemaking and domestic roles, rather than seeking to get involved in technical fields. Over the centuries, women have been relegated to traditional roles and, even when working in professional fields, have been pressured into focusing on fields seen as more appropriate for women, which traditionally involve textiles, cooking and cleaning, or providing care for children, the elderly, or the ill. In the United States, more women graduate from college or universities than men, but they constitute a minority in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. A 2016 census report found that only one in seven women with a degree in a STEM field ends up working in one of those fields.2 Addressing gender inequality is not only a concern for the leaders of individual countries but is an international concern as well. Women with training in STEM fields who cannot find opportunities in their home countries might be able to secure foreign opportunities, or opportunities to work internationally through virtual collaboration and work. As the digital revolution redefines work, therefore, America and other nations of the world have new opportunities to address long-term sources of inequity and inequality.

What’s Coming Next?

Even as America and the other nations of the world are still struggling in many ways to adjust to the digital era, there are newer technologies on the horizon with the potential to further disrupt the way that people live and work. Among the most interesting and newsworthy are developments in the field of “quantum computing.” This emerging field represents a leap forward in technology as significant as the invention of the internet, or the combustion engine, harnessing the power of quantum mechanics to create the potential for a major leap forward in data processing.

The basic idea behind quantum computing is to make a leap away from the use of digital binary data (the “bits” that are used to encode information in digital computer systems) in place of what are called “quantum bits” or “qubits.” A qubit can be made by utilizing the physical properties of an atomic particle, like a photon. Because of the way that subatomic particles behave, it is possible for particles to be linked, through a property known as quantum entanglement, such that changes to one particle will be instantly replicated in any linked particles. Further, particles do not need to exist in only one position and state, but can occupy different physical positions at the same time, a property known as “superposition.”3

The complicated mathematical principles behind these strange subatomic quantum properties mean that qubits can store more data and can be used to process that data nearly instantaneously. A few hundred linked qubits is estimated to be sufficient to represent every number that could theoretically exist. Using specialized algorithms, such a system could rapidly calculate complicated mathematical problems that might take a classical computer weeks or months to complete. In terms of storage, miniscule collections of qubits could store more data that can currently be stored in the world’s largest digital data repositories.4

As of 2022, quantum computing is still very much in the experimental stage, and neither scientists or investors are certain, as yet, when and how this technology will begin to produce practical technologies for industrial and commercial use. This provides an example, therefore, of a technology still in its infancy and this also means that the United States and other nations of the world have the opportunity to consider the potential implications of this new computational revolution before functional technology is widely available. Military researches have already begun looking at how the potential future of quantum technology might impact military capabilities and defense and some have proposed that the United States and allies should invest now in technology that could help prepare the nation for this emerging technology.

Another arena of emerging technology that is expected to have major influence in coming years is the so-called Internet of Things (IoT), a term used for the web of interconnected devices and technological programs incorporated into many different kinds of consumer and industrial technology. Engineers and scientists are seeking to create objects that not only connect to digital information systems but can independently share data and information. While this technology has already proven to have tremendous promise for consumer applications, many security experts worry that the IOT is already creating vulnerabilities that could leave consumers and even nations open to new kinds of threats.5

Unlike the future possibilities of quantum computing, the IOT has already been realized. Smart homes and related technology have been sold in the United States and in other consumer markets for a number of years, and more and more household devices, from lightbulbs to electrical sockets to gardening tools, have been designed to participate in the growing flow of data from digitally enhanced tools and appliances. In terms of military development, much of the equipment being produced and utilized in modern military applications has also been designed to record, transmit, and process digital data, and this is likely to become a more important part of military technology in the future. Already, researchers have coined the term “Internet of Military Things (IoMT),” to refer to this intersection of digital interconnectivity and military engineering. While the IoMT is still in early stages of research and development (R&D), this represents a current area in which cybersecurity will be key to maintaining national security, and also represents a field in which preemptive efforts at control might prove useful.6

Emerging Technology and Emerging Identity

It can be difficult to know, in the moment, which bits of emerging tech will make a big splash and which will end up relegated to the list of transitional technological tools left behind in the wake of bigger, better advancements. Developments like quantum computing and the IoMTs might end up proving impractical or problematic in the longer run and might therefore be abandoned in favor of more immediately effective technology. What is clear is that emerging technology provides opportunities for new jobs and professional fields, and this means that there are opportunities to make the world’s societies more egalitarian by taking steps to expand the benefits and opportunities of new technology to the largest share of the population possible.

Beyond consumer applications and career opportunities, emerging technology can also have a dramatic impact on the balance of power globally. Countries that dominate in new, important technological fields might possess not only an economic advantage but might also gain an advantage in the realm of national defense. International alliances and cooperation can prove key advantages toward the goal of maintaining technological advantages in nearly any technological field. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance, for instance, provides NATO countries with access to R&D in fields like quantum computing taking place within any other member country. With the capability to take advantage of a large pool of R&D, therefore, NATO countries have a significant advantage over nations attempting to stay ahead of technological development independently.

Works Used

1 

Cliff, Valerie. “The Fourth Industrial Revolution Could Smash Gender Inequality—or Deepen It.” WE Forum. Global Agenda. 6 Mar. 2018. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/03/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-could-smash-gender-inequality-or-reinforce-it/.

2 

“How Do Quantum Computers Work?” Science Alert. 2021. https://www.sciencealert.com/quantum-computers.

3 

Lu, Donna. “What Is a Quantum Computer?” New Scientist. 2021. https://www.newscientist.com/question/what-is-a-quantum-computer/.

4 

Ranger, Steve. “What Is the IoT? Everything You Need to Know about the Internet of Things Right Now.” ZD Net. 3 Feb. 2020. https://www.zdnet.com/article/what-is-the-internet-of-things-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-iot-right-now/.

5 

Schwab, Klaus, and Nicholas Davis. Shaping the Future of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. World Economic Forum. Currency, 2018.

6 

Suciu, Peter. “Coming Soon: The Internet of Military Things.” 23 Dec. 2021. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/coming-soon-internet-military-things-198454.

Notes

[1] Schwab and Davis, Shaping the Future of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

[2] Cliff, “The Fourth Industrial Revolution Could Smash Gender Inequality—or Deepen It.”

[3] Lu, “What Is a Quantum Computer?”

[4] “How Do Quantum Computers Work?” Science Alert.

[5] Ranger, “What Is the IoT? Everything You Need to Know about the Internet of Things Right Now.”

[6] Suciu, “Coming Soon: The Internet of Military Things.”

Citation Types

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Format
MLA 9th
"What Is Next On The Technological Horizon For America?." The Reference Shelf: U.S. National Debate Topic 2022-2023: Emerging Technologies & International Security, edited by Micah Issitt, Salem Press, 2022. Salem Online, online.salempress.com/articleDetails.do?articleName=RSJND22_0026.
APA 7th
What Is Next on the Technological Horizon for America?. The Reference Shelf: U.S. National Debate Topic 2022-2023: Emerging Technologies & International Security, In M. Issitt (Ed.), Salem Press, 2022. Salem Online, online.salempress.com/articleDetails.do?articleName=RSJND22_0026.
CMOS 17th
"What Is Next On The Technological Horizon For America?." The Reference Shelf: U.S. National Debate Topic 2022-2023: Emerging Technologies & International Security, Edited by Micah Issitt. Salem Press, 2022. Salem Online, online.salempress.com/articleDetails.do?articleName=RSJND22_0026.