Definition: The spread of nuclear weapons and weapon-making material, whether through the development of new weapons-manufacturing programs or the sale of existing weapons or material capable of being used to make weapons

Nuclear proliferation often refers to the development or acquisition of nuclear weapons by countries that are not nuclear weapons states, as defined by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty of 1968. This has been one of the most significant issues of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, due to its potential to cause global devastation. By the twenty-first century, the threat of global nuclear war had largely subsided, but it was replaced by fear of nuclear terrorism and the use of nuclear weapons technology by unstable political regimes.

The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968 is an agreement between 189 member nations to cooperate in preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, promoting nuclear disarmament among nations that have nuclear weapons, and promoting beneficial and nonmilitary use of nuclear technology. The NPT has been signed by more nations than any defense or military treaty in global history. Under the NPT, the United States, Russia, France, Great Britain, and China are designated as nuclear weapons states and are the only regions permitted to develop nuclear weapons technology.

Another major landmark in nuclear nonproliferation was the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) limiting the use of antiballistic missiles. Under the terms of the treaty, the United States and Russia agreed to limit their antiballistic missile systems to two sites each.

American and Russian Nuclear Disarmament

Following World War II, the United States and Russia (then the Soviet Union) competed in the development of nuclear weapons, leading to a nuclear arms race that continued into the early 1990s, when political developments in Russia led to a renewed interest in disarmament. At this point, leaders in the United States and Russia began negotiating a nuclear weapons reduction program known as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I). START I was initially proposed under US president Ronald Reagan in 1982, officially signed in 1991, and became effective as of 1994.

In January 1993, US president George H. W. Bush signed a new disarmament agreement with Russian president Boris Yeltsin, known as the START II agreement, which called for the banning of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), a type of nuclear weapon containing several missiles.

Efforts toward nuclear disarmament were complicated by the United States’ efforts to create a national missile defense (NMD) system, consisting of interrelated measures designed to counter nuclear attacks. This effort began under the Reagan administration, but in 1999, the United Nations passed a resolution calling for the United States to abandon the program.

The 2000s saw both major accomplishments and setbacks in the efforts to achieve reduction in nuclear weapons within the United States, China, and Russia. In March 2000, Russia and the Netherlands agreed to dismantle old nuclear warheads and to dispose of nuclear weapons material. Also that year, the Russian Federation voted to ratify the START II initiative.

Following the 2000 US presidential election, President George W. Bush announced that the United States would continue its efforts to develop an NMD system, despite objections from China and Russia. After the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against the United States, the nation adopted additional measures to research antimissile technology. In December 2001, Bush withdrew the United States from the 1972 ABM treaty. In response, Russia announced in 2002 that it would withdraw from the START II program.

By 2002, both Russia and the United States had completed reduction of their respective nuclear arsenals to the levels called for in the START I agreement, with each country eliminating more than 70 percent of its nuclear weapons. In May of that year, the United States and Russia negotiated the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT), which limited the strategic arsenals of both countries but not to the levels originally called for in the START II agreement or the initial ABM treaty.

Throughout the remainder of the decade, the United States and Russia cooperated in several nuclear initiatives, including an agreement to share information and technology related to preventing nuclear terrorism. Talks between the two nations continued regarding the future of nuclear proliferation, and Russia continued to object to the United States’ NMD program. Difficulties in negotiations led to a failure to reach a new agreement to replace the START I program, which was set to expire in December 2009.

Russian president Dmitri Medvedev and US president Barack Obama agreed to continue heeding the protocols of the START I agreement until a new agreement could be reached. The New START treaty was signed in April 2010 as a replacement of SORT and a continuation of START I. New START calls for further reductions in the overall nuclear arsenal of both countries within seven years—down to between one thousand and fifteen hundred missiles each from the two thousand or more missiles allowed under the SORT agreement.

North Korean Nuclear Program

In 1994, the United States and North Korea signed the Agreed Framework, which limited nuclear weapons within North Korea in return for US financial aid and help in transitioning North Korea’s nuclear energy technology to “light water reactors.” The agreement was set for an intended completion date of 2003, but in October 2002, North Korea announced that it had begun a nuclear weapons development program. In December, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a UN agency that promotes nonmilitary nuclear technology and nuclear disarmament, announced that several detectors installed in the Yongbyon research reactor in North Korea had been disabled.

In 2003, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il announced that North Korea was withdrawing from the NPT agreement and reactivating its nuclear research facilities. North Korea also officially withdrew from its 1992 pact with South Korea to prevent a stockpile of nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula. The United States and other nations threatened economic and political sanctions against North Korea if the country did not abandon its nuclear program; however, the United States’ invasion of Iraq and criticism of Kim Jong-Il’s leadership complicated efforts to reach an agreement.

North Korea eventually entered the Six-Party Talks, along with representatives of the United States, South Korea, China, Russia, and Japan, in 2003, but negotiators failed to reach an agreement. A second set of negotiations took place in February 2004 in China but again failed to result in an agreement. While North Korea proposed a nonaggression agreement with the United States, US representatives wanted North Korea to comply with the agreements in the Six-Party group.

In 2005, North Korea announced that it had produced weapons-grade plutonium from its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, making North Korea a nuclear weapons state under the IAEA definition. Further information revealed that North Korea had obtained nuclear weapons plans and technology from Pakistan, due to corruption in Pakistan’s military and political structure. North Korea then announced in September 2005 that it would abandon its nuclear program and return to the NPT. However, talks with the United States broke down, and in 2006, North Korea announced that it would not return to negotiations unless the United States agreed to lift trade restrictions against North Korean companies.

North Korea conducted a test of a nuclear device in October 2006, prompting a strong international reaction and efforts to begin a new set of talks. Six-Party negotiations at the end of the year failed to progress. In January 2007, the United States and North Korea reached an agreement through which North Korea would cease its nuclear program and disarm in return for energy aid from the United States and allies. In return, North Korea agreed to shut down the Yongbyon nuclear facility and to allow UN inspections. The United States further agreed to unfreeze more than $20 million in aid to North Korea. IAEA inspectors verified that the Yongbyon nuclear plant had been shut down in July 2007.

In April 2009, North Korea attempted to launch a satellite into orbit, claiming that the launch was part of efforts to contribute to space exploration. However, opponents in the United States and several European nations believed that North Korea was testing technology that might later be used to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles. The United States accused North Korea of violating UN agreements, and North Korea withdrew from further negotiations with the United States, stating the intention to reinitiate its nuclear weapons program.

North Korea reactivated its nuclear facilities in 2009 and expelled UN inspectors. In May of that year, the country announced its second nuclear weapons test.

Iranian Nuclear Program

In the wake of the 2001 terrorist attacks against the United States, the global international community became more concerned about nuclear terrorism, the potential for a radical group to obtain a nuclear weapon for use in terrorist attacks against another nation. This brought increased scrutiny on nations suspected of developing or attempting to trade in nuclear material and technology. In 2003, the IAEA reported that Iran had undisclosed nuclear technology and had failed to report some nuclear development initiatives. In late summer 2003, IAEA inspectors found traces of weapons-grade uranium at an Iranian weapons facility. Iran issued a public statement claiming that its nuclear program was intended to produce energy for civilian use and not for the development of weapons technology.

In early 2004, Iran agreed to suspend any nuclear weapons development activities, but in 2005, it announced that it would continue its uranium enrichment program. In 2009, Iran announced that it had finished construction of a second uranium enrichment facility near the city of Qom.

In 2010, news surfaced about a malicious computer worm called Stuxnet. It was eventually revealed that the virus had infected thousands of computer systems in Iran and had, in fact, interfered with the operation of centrifuge systems essential to the country’s uranium enrichment process. According to some sources, Stuxnet was part of a joint US-Israeli cyberweapons program called Operation Olympic Games, designed to carry out cyberwarfare operations against international enemies. The US government denied any involvement.

Impact

The continuation of the nuclear disarmament process initiated in the 1970s continued in the 2000s, though the United States’ concern over the potential for nuclear terrorism led to setbacks in the schedule for disarmament and significant disagreements between the United States and allies, including Russia and China. Despite these setbacks, global nuclear armament was reduced by more than 30 percent during the decade, and many stronger nuclear nonproliferation agreements were reached. The 2010 New START program is considered a significant step in overall arms reduction in comparison to the START 1 agreement.

Concern over nuclear weapons peaked in the 2000s with the threat of nuclear weapon use by terrorist groups. The United States and allied nations believed that North Korea could eventually represent a legitimate threat with the potential for nuclear war, while nuclear programs in Iran, Pakistan, Syria, and North Korea raised concerns about the potential for nuclear weapons or technology to be sold to terrorist groups. Though negotiations and economic sanctions failed to stop North Korea or Iran from developing weapons technology, negotiations did continue into the following decade, with some gains made through agreements to trade energy and other aid in exchange for the reduction of nuclear programs.

Further Reading